Li'l Rhody Runaround 2017: Race, Stats, Graphs, and a Mystery Question

Charlestown, RI
Sunday, November 19, 2017

This fall just flew by, and all of a sudden the 26th edition of the Li'l Rhody was here.  The weather forecast did not bode well for race turnout, with rain overnight continuing until mid-morning.  By race start, it was sunny but windy and a balmy 57 degrees.  I suppose one unintended benefit of a lower turnout this year was there no long bathroom line, and thus we were able to start punctually at 11:00am sharp.

The start:  As RD, as usual, I did not get a warm-up.  No complaints, just a fact.  I jogged over to the start line, tried to keep my requisite race director remarks brief and concise, and lined up in the second row behind the speedy Hammetts, near Leslie, and out of the way of the high-school XC runners who I just knew would bolt out.

Always tight at the starting line.
(Pic by Jana)

Starting to thin out a bit.  The high school runners have bolted out.
I'm about two rows back.

The front half:  The first mile feels like a sprint to me.  3/4 of a mile is a run down a rutted dirt road (Sanctuary Road) and I'm trying to hold back a little while also trying to snag a decent spot headed into the single-track.  Sure enough, all five of the high-schoolers are ahead of me.  Many runners go around some of the deep puddles left over from the rain, but I follow Bob Jackman's lead and more efficient route of just plowing through them.  At one point just before the trailhead, two high-schoolers (Sebastian and Colby) slow to the left to take the route around another puddle, and this was opportunity to pass them through the puddle.  Evidently, I must have splashed them pretty good, as Colby said, "Thanks a lot, Mr. Walker".  I told him he's going to wet soon enough, so might as well be now! :)  Hit the mile in 5:53 and am already breathing hard.

In the second mile, in the campground, I come up to pass the Aaron, the next high-schooler.  I thought he might give more chase, but I pull away and saunter on.  As we leave the campground and enter the long straight stretch of single-track, I can see Tom a ways ahead of me and Jackman ahead of him.  This is not my favorite stretch, and I'm longing for the more twisty sections and a few rocks.

By the time I get to the long series of bog bridges, I can no longer see anyone ahead of me.  The bridges are very slippery, as I feel like I'm about to careen off of them, I intentionally slow the pace to get back under control.  The bridges here, just before and after the covered bridge, are not straight, and that's not helping.  At Klondike Road, I see Matthew filming as I turn back into the woods and fortunately have a few small rock gardens and stream crossing here.  For the next mile and a half out to the water stop and Buckeye Brook Road, I don't see anyone and don't hear anyone behind me.  Despite being in a singlet and short shorts, I'm feeling quite warm and am happy to take a cup of water at the stop.  Matthew, Crutch, and Paul are also here watching and filming.

Half-way through the race
(Pic by Paul Gray)

Thanks much to the water stop crew for being out there!

The back half:  Exiting onto Buckeye Brook Road, I am distracted (that happens quite easily) when I see a vehicle coming towards me that based upon the make, color, and a snippet of the license plate number, it appears to be Eddie.  No, that can't be, as it's owner, BLS, is supposed to be running this race, as in right now.  Color me confused.  I tell myself to focus, and am surprised to see the runner ahead of me is not Tom.  I catch up to him and see it's a different Thomas - not Tommy 5K, but another WHS runner, Thomas McLaughlin.  Judging on how quickly I catch him, I'm guessing he's fading already.  I re-enter the woods just behind him, and follow him for a 1/4 mile or so before finding a decent place to go past him.  Not long after that, I actually see his father and brother pulled off on bikes and they give me some encouragement.  I yelled that Thomas is just behind me, and moved on.

Coming up "Rhody Rise", I can see a runner ahead of me again, due to the way the trail rises and then goes right.  It's Tommy 5K again.  At the top of the rise, I hear "JeffWalker" yelled out, notice it's Justin's daughter, and I found this re-invigorated me.  The final two miles in the woods went by quickly for me.  I felt good, prefer the back half over the second half, and would see Tommy ahead of several occasions, yet could never bridge the gap. 

Exiting on to the dreaded road is always my least favorite part of the course.  I could see Tom up in the distance, knew I wasn't catching him on roads, and never looking back, I had no idea who or how far back the next runner was.  (In fact, the next runner was more than two minutes back, but it's good to run scared.)  The final 0.6 mile on the road was a 5:50 pace, so I'm happy with that.

Final stride before finish.
(Pic by Jana)

Final results:  51:27.  9th overall.  1st in age group.  Full results here.

Another year, another great orange shirt!

Tried something new with giving pint glasses for awards.  Thoughts?

With an extension cord / generator issue, I was relegated
to conducting the award ceremony from the chilly wind outside the cabin!
My trusty assistant Mike B helped to pass out awards.

From a club perspective, unfortunately, this was the smallest number of finishers in the past 18 years.  The total number of registrants was 194, as more than 30 pre-registrants didn't show up.  That is rather high, with the likely culprit the weather.  It is tough to quantify exactly how much of drop-off comes from weather, as opposed to Mews being on the same date, as opposed to just changing participants and trends over the years.  The weather factor and effect on participants is a bit of speculation, but we can take some guesses on the other two:

Mews:  Taking a look at the finishers of Mews 2017, we can see that exactly ten (10) of the 1,674 finishers of this year's Mews race ran in the 2015 Rhody (the most recent year in which they were held on the same date).  That's a pretty small number not suggesting correlation, albeit limited data points. [Note Mews and Rhody will tentatively be on the same date in 2018, but different dates from 2019 - 2021]

Repeat Runners:  How many people run the race every year? 
Number of people running the race every year the past ...
3 years in a row:  24
5 years in a row:  12
8 years in a row:  4
10 years in a row:  3
13 years in a row:  2

Mystery question:  So who are the two runners that have run it the past 13 years in a row?  Think about it, formulate your guess, and we'll have the answer for you in a jiffy.  (no cheating and scrolling down just yet)

Perhaps not surprisingly, we can see many of the same runners' names over the past few years, but if you go back 10 years, they are largely different runners than in today's race.  Races and participants change over time, and that is also a contributing factor here.



Hopefully 2017 was an anomaly, and we can return to higher numbers.



On a personal note, it remains to be seen if I've peaked and am relegated to 51+ minutes.

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And now, the mystery answer:
The two runners that have run Rhody the past 13 years in a row are Colburn Graves and myself.  I've run Rhody 14 years in a row now, and Colburn has run it at least 16 years in a row (I don't have individual records before 2001.)  Our oldest club member at age 84, Colburn told me moments after crossing the finish line this year that this would likely be his last Rhody.

Very close in the Rhody streak category are Rose Buckingham (12 straight years), and Jonny Hammett (9 straight years).